Evidence for the Irrelevance of Irrelevant Events
Political Science Research and Methods (2023) 11(2): 311–327
Abstract
The expectation that voters behave rationally has been challenged through studies suggesting that "irrelevant events" like natural disasters and sports results change voting behavior. We test the effect of irrelevant events by matching candidate-level election results from Irish general (1922–2020) and local elections (1942–2019) with games in the men's Gaelic football and hurling championships, the most popular sports in Ireland. Although Irish citizens care deeply about sports, we fail to find any relationship between match results and support for incumbents or politicians of government parties. These findings hold when applying an "unexpected event during survey design" to two representative surveys. Our results contribute to the literature on political accountability and point to conditional effects of irrelevant events.
Media Coverage
England’s soccer fortunes add sporting drama to UK election
In this piece on whether sport can influence UK election timing, I was interviewed alongside Liam Kneafsey on our research finding no correlation between Gaelic football and hurling results and support for incumbent politicians.
Six qualities that make you cool, according to science
I was interviewed on the ‘personalisation’ of politics and image versus substance for Joe Humphreys’ column, drawing on research with Liam Kneafsey showing sports results and other ‘irrelevant events’ do not sway Irish voting behaviour.
Sport and politics do mix, but match results don’t swing elections
I co-authored this piece with Liam Kneafsey, presenting our Political Science Research and Methods study finding that Gaelic football and hurling results do not affect Irish voters’ assessments of government performance or election outcomes.