The Irish Polling Indicator
The Irish Polling Indicator (IPI) (opens in new tab) is Ireland’s leading polling aggregator, attracting over 40,000 views each year. It helps the public, journalists, and politicians make sense of shifts in public opinion by focusing on long-term trends rather than individual polls. IPI data are regularly used in television, radio, and print coverage. During the 2024 general election, several RTÉ News articles (opens in new tab) drew on IPI data. The IPI’s accessible website and open data (opens in new tab) have made it a useful reference for anyone following Irish politics, including political advisers and polling organisations.
Associated Publications
“What the 2024 Party Manifestos Reveal: Issue Salience and Left-Right Positions.” pp. 99–121, in: Michael Gallagher, Eoin O'Malley, and Theresa Reidy (eds.): How Ireland Voted 2024: The New Normal? Palgrave Macmillan, 2025 (with Gail McElroy).
“Are Irish Voters Moving to the Left?.” Irish Political Studies (2021) 36(4): 535–555 (with Aidan Regan).
“The Electoral Cycle Effect in Parliamentary Democracies.” Political Science Research and Methods (2020) 8(4): 795–802 (with Tom Louwerse).
“Irish Demographic Polling Datasets.” Dashboard, 2024 (with Thomas Pluck and Paula Montano).
“Irish Local and European Parliament Election Manifestos.” Dashboard, 2024 (with Artur Baranov and Paula Montano).
Associated Media Coverage
The Poll of Polls and voter turnout
I examined trends in Irish voter turnout, comparing local and general elections and Ireland internationally, and explored factors such as homeownership, urban-rural divides, satisfaction with democracy, age gaps and weather that shape who votes, ahead of the 2024 general election.
The Poll of Polls ahead of the General Election
I compared the latest opinion polls and aggregated Irish Polling Indicator estimates showing Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin neck-and-neck days before the 2024 general election, and discussed how undecided voters could still affect the result.
The Poll of Polls and transfer patterns
I explained how PR-STV vote transfers work in Irish elections, analysed historical transfer patterns between parties, and assessed how often transfers decide seats, ahead of expected Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael transfers in the 2024 general election.
Poll of Polls: tracking trends and voting intentions
I assessed the accuracy of Irish opinion polls since 1989 in international comparison, explained the Irish Polling Indicator’s aggregation method, and gave the latest poll-of-polls estimates for each party ahead of the 2024 general election.
Late deciders, loyalty, and routes to the Dáil
I explored when Irish voters decide their vote, declining party identification, the incumbency advantage, and other routes to the Dáil such as local council experience and family political dynasties, ahead of the 2024 general election campaign.
General election polls are poor predictors of local elections – here’s why
I explained why Irish general election polls are fairly accurate but poor predictors of local elections, using Irish Polling Indicator data, and set out recommendations for how media should report polling uncertainty.
Irish election poll tracker: Sinn Féin falls to lowest level of support since 2020
Irish Polling Indicator data powers BreakingNews.ie’s poll-of-polls tracker, which showed Fianna Fáil narrowly ahead of Fine Gael and Sinn Féin as the 2024 campaign concluded.
Ireland election: parties neck and neck
Ahead of the 2024 general election, the article includes an interactive dashboard of support for Irish parties based on data from the Irish Polling Indicator.